When Diversification Fails: Stocks −18%, Bonds −13% in the Same Year
By Daniel Kim TLDR In 2022, the S&P 500 lost 18.1% and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index lost 13.0% — the bond index's worst calendar year since it began in 1976. A classic 60/40 portfolio fell about 16.9%, only about one percentage point better than holding stocks alone. The cause was inflation: the Federal Reserve raised rates 425 basis points in nine months, and bond prices fall when rates rise. Diversification is not dead — but diversification built only on stocks and bonds fails exactly when inflation drives a selloff. This post shows the numbers, explains why the hedge broke, and gives you four checks to run on your own portfolio this week. The promise that broke Every investor has heard the rule: stocks zig, bonds zag. When stocks fall, bonds are supposed to catch you. For most of the last forty years, that rule worked. In 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 37.0%, bonds gained 5.2% — the cushion did its job, and balanced portfolios lost about 20% instead of 37%....