Winter Heating Bills 2026–27: Oil Heat Costs $2,115 (+21%) While Gas Heat Drops to $640 — the EIA Forecast by Fuel
$1,475 is the winter heating gap the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts between the average oil household ($2,115) and the average natural gas household ($640), as of its October 6, 2026 outlook. The same forecast has gas spending down 9% and oil spending up 21%; my read is that, this winter, the fuel you heat with could shape your bill more than the weather does. Below: the EIA numbers by fuel, why oil is the outlier, and the federal assistance route that runs through your state or local agency, plus a checklist you can act on today.
The EIA forecast by fuel, November through March
Season definition: November–March, total spending on the household's primary heating fuel, as forecast in the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, a Short-Term Energy Outlook perspectives article released October 6, 2026.
| Fuel | Avg. winter spend | Change vs. last winter | What drives it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | $2,115 | +21% | Retail price of $5.26 per gallon (+34%) outweighs a 9% drop in use |
| Propane | $1,246 | −3% | Small net decline; no price or use split cited |
| Electricity | $1,196 | +4% | Small net increase; no price or use split cited |
| Natural gas | $640 | −9% | Varies by region: $879 Northeast average, $511 South average, +7% in the West |
Treat every dollar figure here as a forecast of average spending, not a bill. Your own number depends on your home, your supplier, and your weather: size, insulation, and thermostat habits could put your bill above or below the average for your fuel. Any figure shown with its formula in this article is my own arithmetic on EIA's figures. It is a rule-of-thumb, not a forecast.
How to use the table in three steps
- Find the row for your primary heating fuel. The figures are a household's total winter spending on that fuel.
- Add up last winter's bills for that fuel, November through March, and compare your total with the implied last-winter average in the reader math below. If your total is far from that average, trust your own bills as the baseline.
- Check your region. The national natural gas change is −9%, but EIA forecasts gas spending in the West up 7%.
This article uses national and regional averages only. State benefit amounts and deadlines sit with your state's program, so the LIHEAP section below points you there instead of guessing.
Why oil is the outlier
Oil is the only fuel in the table with a double-digit forecast increase: $2,115, up 21%. The chain runs from price to use to bill, with a number at each step.
- Price: the retail price of heating oil is forecast at $5.26 per gallon, up 34%.
- Use: consumption is forecast down 9%, so households are forecast to burn less oil.
- Bill: average winter spending is forecast at $2,115, up 21%, which is about $367 more than the roughly $1,748 average that EIA's +21% implies for last winter (2,115 ÷ 1.21 ≈ 1,748; 2,115 − 1,748 ≈ 367).
Think of a grocery receipt. Buy 9% fewer items at prices 34% higher and the total at the register still climbs. That is the oil forecast: households are forecast to use less and still pay much more, because the price move outweighs the use move.
Percent math and dollar math give different intuitions here.
- Percent math: the bill rises 21% while the price rises 34%, so each 1% of price increase becomes about 0.62% of bill increase (21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.62).
- Dollar math: the implied price last winter was about $3.93 per gallon (5.26 ÷ 1.34 ≈ 3.93), so each gallon costs about $1.33 more (5.26 − 3.93 = 1.33), and the average household's season total is about $367 higher (formula above).
A check you can run yourself: multiplying the rounded EIA figures gives 1.34 × 0.91 ≈ 1.22, or about +22%, one point above EIA's stated +21%. My read: that could be rounding in EIA's whole-number percentages, so this article uses EIA's stated +21% throughout.
Compare oil with the lowest-spend fuel on the list. In dollars, the average oil household is forecast to spend $1,475 more than the average gas household (2,115 − 640). As a ratio, that is about 3.3 times as much (2,115 ÷ 640 ≈ 3.30).
My read: with the retail price up 34%, a 9% cut in use could soften the bill but not hold it flat, so oil households could have the strongest reason to line up assistance before the tank runs low. The LIHEAP section below covers how.
Propane is forecast at $1,246, down 3%. It is the second-highest spend in the table, and the change is small.
Electricity is forecast at $1,196, up 4%. Nationally, it is the only fuel besides oil with a forecast increase, and the increase is small next to oil's 21%.
The regional catch: same fuel, different bills
National averages hide the spread. Natural gas shows it best. Gas households in the Northeast average $879 this winter on EIA's forecast, while gas households in the South average $511. Same fuel, same season, and the Northeast figure is $368 higher (879 − 511 = 368), or about 1.7 times the Southern average (879 ÷ 511 ≈ 1.72). The national $640 sits between the two: the Northeast average is $239 above it and the South average is $129 below it (879 − 640 = 239; 640 − 511 = 129). My read: the national number describes neither region well.
The direction can differ too. The national natural gas change is −9%, but EIA forecasts gas spending in the West up 7%, a 16-point difference (7 − (−9) = 16 percentage points). A Western gas household that reads the national headline and expects a smaller bill is reading a number that does not describe the West.
If you heat with gas in the Northeast, your comparison point is $879, not $640; in the South, it is $511. The national figure could make a Northeast bill look high and a Southern bill look low when neither is unusual for its region.
The national row is a starting point, not your answer. The causes behind each regional move are not part of the figures used here.
Average winter spend by fuel
Reader math: put your own numbers in
The arithmetic below uses the same forecast figures as the table. Use it to turn EIA's percentages into dollars you can compare with your own bills.
Every number in this box is my arithmetic on EIA's forecast figures as of October 6, 2026, with the formula shown. It is a rule-of-thumb, not a forecast.
Formulas you can reuse
- Your projected winter spend = your total for last winter (November through March) × (1 + EIA's change for your fuel)
- Implied last-winter average = forecast average ÷ (1 + EIA's change)
- Dollar change = forecast average − implied last-winter average
- Monthly set-aside = projected winter spend ÷ 5 (November through March is five months)
The multiplier, 1 + EIA's change
- Heating oil: 1.21 (+21%)
- Propane: 0.97 (−3%)
- Electricity: 1.04 (+4%)
- Natural gas: 0.91 (−9%) nationally and 1.07 (+7%) in the West; changes for other regions are not cited here
Worked example: heating oil
- Implied last-winter average: 2,115 ÷ 1.21 ≈ 1,748 (implied by EIA's +21%)
- Dollar change: 2,115 − 1,748 ≈ 367
- Monthly set-aside: 2,115 ÷ 5 = 423
Read it this way: a household at last winter's implied average of about $1,748 and this winter's forecast average of $2,115 would spend about $367 more while using 9% less fuel.
The same formulas on the other fuels
- Propane: 1,246 ÷ 0.97 ≈ 1,285 last winter, so about $39 less; 1,246 ÷ 5 ≈ 249 a month
- Electricity: 1,196 ÷ 1.04 = 1,150 last winter, so about $46 more; 1,196 ÷ 5 ≈ 239 a month
- Natural gas (national): 640 ÷ 0.91 ≈ 703 last winter, so about $63 less; 640 ÷ 5 = 128 a month
EIA publishes whole-number percentages, so each implied figure could be off by several dollars (for oil, a true change anywhere from +20.5% to +21.5% puts last winter's average between 2,115 ÷ 1.215 ≈ 1,741 and 2,115 ÷ 1.205 ≈ 1,755). Monthly figures are an even split of a seasonal total; real bills can swing with the weather, so use them for planning, not for predicting any single month.
The dollars show what the percentages hide. A 9% drop for gas households is worth about $63, and a 3% drop for propane households about $39, while a 21% rise for oil households is about $367 (formulas in the box above). Same winter, very different scale: only one fuel moves by hundreds of dollars.
If you heat with oil, you can also work in gallons: winter oil bill ≈ gallons burned × price per gallon, with EIA's forecast average retail price at $5.26. Your actual price could differ from that average, so use your latest delivery price if you have it.
If your projected bill comes out above your heating budget, the checklist in the LIHEAP section below is where to start.
Who heats with what
Natural gas is the main space-heating fuel in 46% of U.S. homes, about 61 million households (2024 data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey, as cited by EIA). Gas is the lowest spend in this forecast at $640 and has the largest forecast drop, −9%, so those households sit on the lower-cost side of this winter, with one exception noted above: the West, where gas spending is forecast up 7%.
Oil households are on the other side. Heating oil use is concentrated in the Northeast, which makes the oil increase more of a regional story than a national one. My read: if you live in the Northeast and heat with oil, you are in the part of the country where this forecast's increase is concentrated, and the national gas decline does not describe your winter.
The other 54% of homes do not use natural gas as the main space-heating fuel (100 − 46 = 54). The figures used here do not give the share that heat mainly with oil, propane, or electricity, so this article can't say how many households sit on the higher-cost side of the forecast.
If you heat with propane or electricity, your row sits in the middle of the table: propane is forecast down 3% and electricity up 4%, which works out to about $39 less and about $46 more (1,246 − 1,246 ÷ 0.97 ≈ −39; 1,196 − 1,196 ÷ 1.04 = 46). If you heat with gas, check your region first, because the West is forecast up 7% while the national figure is down 9%. If you heat with oil, run the reader math against last winter's bills and check your state's program before the tank is empty. Whatever your fuel, the next section covers an income ceiling you can check.
LIHEAP: the assistance route that runs through your state
The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is federal heating assistance for eligible households, distributed through states and territories. Total state and territory awards for fiscal year 2026 come to about $4.13 billion. That is a national total, not a per-household amount, and this article does not break it out by state.
The income ceiling, in plain terms: under federal law it is the greater of two measures, 150% of the federal poverty guidelines or 60% of state median income (42 U.S.C. 8624(b)(2)(B)). Whichever is higher sets the ceiling. As a formula: ceiling = the larger of (1.5 × the federal poverty guideline) and (0.6 × state median income). States also may not exclude households below 110% of poverty.
My read: because the ceiling is the higher of two measures, some working households could fall under it without expecting to. The ceiling alone is not a promise of help, so rely on your state's program and income limit to decide whether to apply.
There is no federal application window and no federal form. You apply through your state or local LIHEAP agency, and that agency's own instructions are the ones that count. Funds are distributed by states and can run out, so applying early in the season matters. State benefit amounts and deadlines are state matters and are not listed here; EnergyHelp.us, the official consumer portal, is where to check your state's program and income limit.
- Check your state's program and income limit at EnergyHelp.us, the official consumer portal.
- If you can't find the local office, call the National Energy Assistance Referral (NEAR) hotline at 1-866-674-6327.
- Apply through your state or local agency. There is no federal form, so follow the agency's own instructions.
- Gather income documentation before you apply, and ask the agency which documents it accepts.
- Ask the same office about weatherization assistance. Burning less fuel could soften any price increase.
- If you heat with oil, ask about your state program before the tank is empty, not after.
What could change these numbers
These are EIA forecasts made in early October (as of October 6, 2026): a colder-than-forecast winter raises consumption and bills, and regional numbers vary widely.
Your next step
The weather is out of your hands; the application is not. Find your fuel's number in the table and, if the LIHEAP ceiling might cover your household, file the application this month.
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